Recent Developments in Syria: What’s Happening on the Ground?

Recent developments in Syria demonstrate complex and highly diverse dynamics. The country, which has been ravaged by civil war for more than a decade, experiences ongoing tensions even as some areas have stabilized. Here are some key points about what happened on the ground. First, territorial control in Syria is increasingly fragmented. Bashar al-Assad’s government managed to maintain control over much of the west, including Damascus and Aleppo. However, northern areas controlled by the opposition and Kurdish groups such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) remain separated from the central government. The SDF is still fighting the remnants of the Islamic State group, which despite major losses, still carries out sporadic guerilla operations. Second, the humanitarian issue in Syria remains a significant challenge. According to the latest reports, more than 13 million Syrians need urgent humanitarian assistance. Deteriorating economic conditions and blocking of aid have further exacerbated the situation. Communities in conflict-affected areas face shortages of food, clean water and health services. Refugees forced to leave their homes are also vulnerable with many of them living in camps in inadequate conditions. Third, international engagement in Syria continues to change. Russia remains a key ally of the Assad government, providing military and diplomatic support. Meanwhile, the United States maintains a presence in the north, coordinating with the SDF to counter the ISIS threat. In recent months, there has been a tightening of relations between Türkiye and Russia, with Türkiye trying to stem Kurdish influence on its borders. This sparked fears of possible new military attacks in the Afrin and Manbij areas. Fourth, economic recovery is an important topic among Syrian leaders, although its realization is still far from expectations. Signs of reconstruction are visible in government-controlled cities, with foreign investment starting to come in. However, international sanctions, especially from western countries, hinder a speedy recovery. This poses a dilemma for the international community about how to assist the recovery process without strengthening the Assad regime. Fifth, political security is an issue that continues to grow. The government’s strategy to control the opposition and strengthen the government’s legitimacy indicates a change in political approach. Dialogue between some opposition factions and the government, while still limited, marks a small step towards more constructive discussions. However, skepticism from many parties still dominates at this time. In the field, these dynamics reflect a region that is still fragmented with increasingly complex challenges. In geopolitical science, developments in Syria are a reflection of the ongoing power struggle between domestic and international actors. Every step taken by leaders and armed groups will have an impact not only on Syria but also on the Middle East region as a whole.